The Ratchet Effect and the Flight to Non-Bank Lenders: Behavioural Consequences of Restrictive Monetary Policy in Poland

Abstrakt

The article presents an in-depth examination of the mechanisms of household credit indebtedness in Poland, integrating macroeconomic indicators with insights from behavioural economics. The study elucidates the primary determinants of consumption smoothing financed through external sources of credit. Drawing on data from the OECD, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), and the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), the paper identifies a pronounced structural bifurcation in the Polish credit market. The transmission of restrictive monetary policy through the WIBOR index has exerted a substantial constraining effect on the volume of traditional bank lending. As a consequence, a marked reallocation of credit demand is observed: households, seeking to stabilize their consumption trajectories in the context of declining real incomes and increasingly stringent banking regulations, are progressively shifting towards the dynamically expanding non-bank lending segment. Quantitative analyses indicate a profound structural transformation of the market: the value of non-bank loan sales increased from PLN 4.7 billion in 2020 to PLN 16.3 billion in 2024. These findings point to significant systemic vulnerabilities associated with this reorientation of credit flows and underscore the urgency of strengthening macroprudential oversight as well as enhancing the scope and effectiveness of financial education initiatives.