Assessment of the financial condition of selected enterprises from the Podkarpackie Voivodeship under uncertainty conditions using industry-specific discriminant models

Abstract

The volatility of the environment and the prevailing uncertainty in the economy caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict translate into the bankruptcies of enterprises, in which the largest number of bankrupt companies are recorded every year by the industrial processing, wholesale and retail trade and construction sectors. The article attempts to explain the difference between uncertainty and risk and also determines the positive and negative effects of individual economic disturbances that occurred in the years 2019-2023. The article also mentions the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The main objective of the research is to assess the financial condition of selected enterprises from the Podkarpackie Voivodeship, whose business includes industries with the highest risk of bankruptcy. In estimating the risk of bankruptcy, the E. Altman model is a very popular method. However, the application of foreign models to Polish economic conditions is questioned in the domestic literature on the subject due to the different macroeconomic conditions. For this reason, S. Herman’s industry models were chosen as the research method. When selecting companies for the study, it was ensured that the main subject of activity of individual business entities was consistent with the research sample, based on which bankruptcy prediction models for individual industries were constructed. In addition, entities were selected whose organizational and legal form is a joint-stock company. The paper assumes that the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will significantly affect the financial condition of companies headquartered in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship. On the other hand, the results of the conducted research indicate that the selected companies from the industrial processing industry have a very good financial condition. In turn, out of the five construction companies studied, two were at risk of insolvency, and all commercial entities were at risk of bankruptcy in the years 2019-2023. Therefore, it can be concluded that not all enterprises are affected by economic disruptions to the same extent. The article also attempts to formulate guidelines for companies from the construction, industrial and commercial sectors in conditions of uncertainty in order to implement actions that could improve the financial condition of the companies studied.