The next 100 years – applying megatrends to analyze the future of the Polish economy

Abstract

The objective of the article was to assess a long-term exposure of the Polish economy to megatrends – key global changes influencing economies and societies worldwide. On the basis of the results of a structured literature review, the most cited global megatrends have been identified: digitalization, climate change, resource scarcity, population growth, population aging, urbanization growth. We operationalized these trends by selecting metrics based on existing indexes, forecasts and foresight studies. With the application of the metrics we created megatrend exposure indicators to measure a relative susceptibility of country economies to these trends. We used this tool to assess a relative exposure of the Polish economy to six megatrends and to create a country strategic profile. We applied a long-term perspective of up to 40 years and beyond. The outcome of the analysis shows that the exposure of the Polish economy is very high to population aging and high to digitalization. The exposure to urbanization growth and resource scarcity can be described as moderate. The exposure to climate changes has turned out to be low and to population growth very low. The novelty of our research is the structuring of megatrend exposure indicators and their application to foresight study for a country economy which, up to our knowledge, has not been attempted thus far. Knowledge of forthcoming changes and the degree of exposure to these megatrends can be used as input for strategic, long-term, analyses in various areas ranging from public policy to corporate investment.