Forecasting of the number of air passengers in the United States in terms of the mainte-nance of economic security during the impact of COVID-19

Abstrakt

The purpose of the study is to forecast the number of passengers transported by air in the United States for 2021-2022. The forecast is preceded by a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in the United States from 1 January 2019 to 2 November 2021. To achieve this goal, the research data were grouped as dependent variables: years, months-years. The observed similarities, the analysis and evaluation of the literature as well as our own experience made it possible to forecast primary data for the future. The obtained results show a growing trend in the number of passengers transported by air in the United States. The forecast for 3 November 2021 to 31 December 2022 is 837,459, 877 prospective air passengers in the United States. The standard deviation of the obtained forecast was 255,680,3, the arithmetic mean was 1,975,141 passengers, and the median was 1,998,478 passengers. The observed similar trends in the identical months of July-October in 2019 and 2021 as well as the analysis of the literature and the own experience allowed for the selection of a method for the forecasting of the number of passengers transported by air in the United States for the future. The detected regularities as recurring trends in the number of air passengers transported in the United States on a dynamic basis may be used to forecast them for the future.